Posted by: coloradokiwi | March 11, 2008

Delegate-gate (eh, so sue me): What of the Edwards delegates?

I should be working on other things, but I had a sudden flash of joy/horror:  what happens to John Edwards’ delegates?

I remember this being an issue much earlier on in the campaign.  Now that it’s abundantly clear that it will be nearly impossible for either Hillary or Barack to win with pledged delegates alone, there has been a lot of focus on what will tip the hand of most of the superdelegates:  the pledged delegate count, the popular vote total, some other arcane metric, some combination of these?  With Hillary’s camp hinting that not even the pledged delegates are safe from being pilfered (ahem, democracy schemocracy, I guess), there’s been a lot of crazy delegate math and tabulators going crazy.

Amidst all of this, we’ve forgotten:  what will Edwards’ pledged delegates do?  He has only 26 delegates, it’s worth mentioning, so it’s unlikely to really affect the final outcome.  Then again…

What if they seat the FL and MI delegates after all?  Particularly if they seat them after they somehow re-vote?  Current polling has Barack basically being beaten in FL again by more or less the same amount.  But in MI they are in a polling tie:  41% each according to Rasmussen.  Clinton may well still win that state, but not at 55%, probably.  Either way she might even then not quite edge out Barack in the popular vote.  Would the 26 delegates make a difference?  Would Edwards direct his pledged delegates to go one way or the other?  How would that effective endorsement affect what the superdelegates did?  It has been largely assumed that an Edwards and particularly Richardson endorsement would all but seal the deal, particularly if it’s for Obama.

If these 26 delegates do what they like, of course, it’s pretty much a moot point:  less than the sum total of all of them is unlikely to make any difference at all.  But as one block, and more importantly, as the signal that delegation would send, it could end up being quite a difference.

And at the last:  is Edwards mulling this over, hoping for a tie at the convention so he can play kingmaker with his endorsement/delegates?  What would he ask for in return?  I’m inclined to think he wouldn’t take VP, but hold out maybe for a platform policy issue and/or cabinet post.

But we’re way ahead of ourselves.  For now it remains to be seen how big Obama’s margins are gonna be in the states he’s likely to win, how big Clinton’s margins are gonna be in the states she’s likely to win, and what will influence the as yet uncommitted superdelegates.

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Responses

  1. I know you wrote this in March but it shows that you are quite astute! Well thought out and well written. It has been a very interesting race to say the least.

    You might find some posts that are of interest to you at http://www.letustalk.wordpress.com

    Paulette


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